The US economy will plunge into a recession in 2019, thanks to overreach by the Federal Reserve — which raised interest rates for the fourth time in 2018. That’s the sobering assessment of Canadian economist David Rosenberg, a strategist with Gluskin Sheff, a Toronto investment firm.
“The market is behaving as it did during the worst collapse for the market since 1929 and/or the worst recession since the Great Depression,” Rosenberg wrote at Business Insider. “The Fed is over-reached.”
To paraphrase Warren Buffet: ‘If this isn’t a bear market, then what is it?’
Rosenberg admits that he has a history of making bearish market predictions. In 2017, he projected that the US economy would melt down in 2018 — but that never happened.
So he’s back to the drawing board and has dusted off his old forecast to use again in 2019.
Rosenberg: Fed’s 4 Rate Hikes Spurred Anxiety
Rosenberg — who is not a fan of President Donald Trump — agreed with his recent smackdowns of the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in December 2018, just three months after hiking them again in September.
“The Fed actually had the temerity of raising rates on December 19 even though, since the prior tightening in late-September, financial conditions in aggregate had tightened 125 basis points,” he wrote.
The Fed has already overshot neutrality in our view, and there is a risk it will not ease as quickly as we think.
The [Jerome] Powell Fed is determined to burst all the market bubbles created under the [Benjamin] Bernanke era and then nurtured in [Janet] Yellen’s short tenure.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell — a Trump appointee — has raised interest rates seven times under President Trump’s two-year tenure.