Turner’s Take Podcast: USDA Sinks Grains

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 177 New Podcast!

One March 29th the USDA shocked the corn market as Quarterly Stocks came in 270mm bushels higher than expected.  New crop corn acre expectations are set at 92.8mm!  Old crop closed 17 cents lower on the day and new crop was down 12.  While the markets have recovered some, the damage is done and it has caused us to do a rethink on potential price ranges this year.  Listen to Turner’s Take Podcast to find out more!

Macro Markets

It has been reported that the US and China are 90% done on the trade deal negotiations.  The 10% will probably be the hardest to hammer out.  When this deal is announced we expect a rally in the stock and commodity markets.  Tariffs between the US and China has caused significant damage to the global economy.  A failure to resolve their differences could cause a global recession.  A successful resolution could be the start of a bull market.

South China Morning Post | US, China start “Endgame” Round of Talks in Washington, DC

Corn & Soybean Supply and Demand Tables

Below is our latest Corn and Soybean supply and demand tables. This is assuming NO deal with China.  The next additions of Turner’s Take Market Alert and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing will have assumptions that a deal gets DONE!  The No Deal tables look bleak.  Soybeans are much worse than corn without a trade deal.  Soybean stock could easily be over 1 billion.  Corn stocks will still be in the 2 billion to 2.4 billion range, which is not a disaster but it does keep front month corn in the mid $3 and gives new crop little reason to test $4.

A US/China deal does not

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