Turner’s Take Podcast: August 10, 2018 | Are Soybeans the New Wheat?

The WASDE was very bearish for soybeans and neutral to mildly bearish for corn and wheat.  Soybean yields came in at 51.6 bpa and this resulted in a 785mm bushel new crop carryout.  That is an 18.44 stocks/use ratio and we have not seen that big of a number since 2006-2007 when soybeans were trading in the $6 and $7 range.

The Sunday open could get ugly for soybeans.  The WASDE was released after the Asian and European close.  I do not like Friday WASDE reports for this reason.  It has the potential to make the Sunday night open a mess.  If the markets continue to sell off Sunday night and into Monday, we see support for Nov Soybeans at $8.30, Dec Corn $3.65, and Sept Chi Wheat $5.35.

Below are my updated Supply and Demand tables for Corn and Soybeans.  The middle columns in yellow reflect the USDA report today.  Then we make assumptions if the yields are a little higher and a little lower.  Corn looks OK.  Soybeans look like the new wheat!

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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

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