Trump predicts deadly Paris shooting to have 'big effect' on key French election – Washington Post

By James McAuley,

PARIS — A deadly shootout on the Champs Elysees, Paris’s most famous avenue, darkened the final day of campaigning in France’s pivotal presidential election on Friday as President Trump predicted the attack will help shape the outcome.

Trump did not elaborate on how the latest apparent Islamist-linked violence could sway Sunday’s vote, but far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has raised many of the same anti-immigrant and security issues that were pushed by Trump during his campaign.

“Another terrorist attack in Paris,” Trump wrote in a Twitter post. “The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!”

The French elections have become a critical test of strength for Le Pen and her National Front at a time when nationalism has overshadowed other votes in the West, including Trump’s victory and last year’s British referendum to leave the European Union.

Le Pen’s opponents, meanwhile, have urged France to stand against the hard-line rhetoric that has dominated her campaign.

Despite a promise not to campaign in the final days, Le Pen reinforced her message in a speech Friday, calling on the French government to immediately reinstate border checks and expel foreigners being monitored by the intelligence services.

“My government of national unity will implement this policy, so that the republic will live, and that France will live,” she said in an impromptu news conference.

It’s unclear whether Thursday’s attack was timed with election events. But it appeared to have that effect in the public’s mind — coming as the 11 candidates were speaking in a televised debate event before a reported audience of millions.

One police officer was killed and two others were seriously injured after a gunman opened fire with a Kalashnikov assault rifle on a police patrol parked on the avenue, sending pedestrians fleeing into side streets. The Islamic State claimed responsibility.

The gunman was then shot dead as he tried to escape, the Paris prosecutor told reporters.

Francois Molins, the Paris prosecutor, declined to disclose the gunman’s identity because of the ongoing investigation, which included the discovery of a number of knives and a pump-action shotgun in the gunman’s car.

European intelligence officials confirmed to The Washington Post that the attacker was named Karim Cheurfi and was known to French intelligence, having previously come to authorities’ attention because of possible links to terrorist networks.

[Le Pen wants to shape France’s future. But can she escape her past?]

Two French officials revealed to the Associated Press that the gunman had been detained in February for allegedly threatening police but was then released for lack of evidence.

Early Friday, French authorities were also looking for a second suspect in connection with the shooting, Pierre-Henry Brandet, a spokesman for the French Interior Ministry, said Friday on Europe 1 radio. A Belgian man was initially identified as the suspect, but authorities in Brussels said that he had been misidentified and that they were still trying to determine whether any Belgians were involved.

As the candidates vowed to suspend campaign events to honor the fallen officer, analysts were quick to say that the shooting, in a country that has suffered a string of devastating terrorist attacks in the past two years, was particularly advantageous for the right-wing, anti-immigrant presidential contenders — especially Le Pen, who has been sharply critical of “Islamist terrorism” for weeks.

[45 years of terrorist attacks in Europe, visualized]

The attack was claimed, with unusual speed, by the Islamic State through its affiliated Amaq News Agency on Thursday night, saying it was carried out by a Belgian national it identified only by the pseudonym Abu Yusuf al-Baljiki.

But analysts urged caution in interpreting the information.

“It’s never happened in the past so quickly,” said Jean-Charles Brisard, an intelligence expert and the director of the Paris-based Center for the Analysis of Terrorism, referring to the Islamic State tendency to claim attacks.

“Perhaps the individuals in question had some kind of coordination and were in contact with them,” he said, referring to the Islamic State, “but we should also not rule out the possibility that Amaq was too hasty in releasing its statements.”

On Friday, French police detained three family members of the dead gunman in the Paris suburbs, the Reuters news agency reported, citing legal sources.

The attack is expected to weigh heavily on voters’ minds as they prepare to go to the polls Sunday for the first round of the presidential election, among the most crucial France has seen in decades. In the face of rising political extremes, at stake is whether the country will remain in the European Union.

Up until now, the contentious campaign has featured many themes — immigration, unemployment, taxation, globalization — but has lacked a central, defining issue. But Thursday’s attack, analysts say, is a last minute game changer.

“Now there is a structuring thematic, and that thematic is terrorism,” said François Heisbourg, a defense expert and former French presidential adviser on national security. “But if terrorism will now be at the front of everyone’s mind, we have no idea how that plays.”

The candidates, especially on the right, wasted no time in emphasizing the gravity of the issue.

Echoing Le Pen, François Fillon, the embattled contender from France’s more mainstream conservative party, said Friday that the fight against “Islamist totalitarianism” should be “the priority of the next government.”

By contrast, Emmanuel Macron, the popular independent candidate vying for the presidency, however, was quick to argue against any fearmongering.

“We must not yield to fear today,” he said Thursday. “This is what our assailants are waiting for, and it’s their trap.”

[Anti-Muslim rhetoric permeates French presidential election campaign]

It remains unclear what kind of effect the Champs Elysees attack could have on French voters. Similar incidents in the past have led to both the embrace and rejection of right-wing agendas.

In 2002, for instance, a law and order scandal just before the first round of the vote partially assisted Jean-Marie Le Pen, the father of Marine Le Pen and founder of the National Front, to win enough votes to enter the second and final round. Le Pen ultimately lost by a landslide in that final contest, but his momentary rise would have been unlikely without the last-minute incident, experts say.

But in 2012, for instance, a terrorist attack on a Jewish school in Toulouse in the final weeks before the French election that year did not swing the polls in favor of conservative Nicolas Sarkozy, then the incumbent, hard-line president with a reputation for being tough on crime. François Hollande, a socialist, won that election instead.

Similarly, in advance of the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the murder of Jo Cox, a pro-“Remain” member of the British parliament, by a nationalist supporter of the “Leave” campaign, did not dissuade British voters from voting to exit the European Union, as analysts had speculated it might.

The Islamic State has asserted responsibility for previous attacks in France, including a coordinated November 2015 terrorist assault on multiple targets in Paris that left 130 people dead and more than 360 wounded.

After that attack and others in the past two years — many perpetrated by Islamic State militants or those claiming to be inspired by the extremist group — terrorism and national security have become crucial issues in the most contentious election France has seen in decades.

Souad Mekhennet in Frankfurt, Germany, Michael Birnbaum in Brussels and Brian Murphy in Washington contributed to this report.

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Europe may face a grim future with terrorism as a fact of life

How terrorism in the West compares to terrorism everywhere else

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