Fast forward, and the NDX topped at $12439 on Sept. 2, one day after my update, adding 1%. It then staged its fastest 10% drop in its history the following three trading days, erasing more than one-month’s worth of gains. Thus, my updated target zone and risk/reward ratio were correct.
After the three-day drop, I told my Premium Major Market members to expect a bounce back to $11580-11905 before the next leg lower would kick in (green wave-b and c; respectively). The green b-wave did what it did, but the anticipated leg lower (green wave-c) failed to reach its ideal target of $10500-10000. The market had different plans. Yes, I do not, and cannot, know all twists and turns beforehand because we are dealing with probabilities of possibilities and not with certainties. It bottomed last Friday, and since staged its best rally since Sept. 2. Thus a larger bounce is now under way to ideally $11505-11860. From there, I expect the next leg lower (red “c?”) to complete larger (black) wave-4. Wave-5 kicks should then rally the index back to new all-time highs and to complete the bull that started in 2009 in the spring of 2021. (See my recent article here explaining why.)
Bottom line. The current market environment remains the same as over the last few years: overextended rallies followed by fast-and-furious corrections. Thus, traders have to stay vigilant; resist the urge to chase, aka FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out); scale-out of longs, aka sell into strength; and raise their stops continuously to protect remaining profits. Besides, EWP and classic technical analyses (TA) need to be continually relied on for trading decisions. No technique or tool gets the right answer about the markets’ next move all the time. But EWP combined with TA is right often enough to