Milder Tuesday with a few showers: Jim Teske's Forecast – WSYR

(Tuesday Morning, December 23, 2014) Steady rain will taper to a bit of drizzle this morning. That will be followed by more showers midday into the afternoon as temperatures will be in the 40s Tuesday. Even warmer, perhaps record breaking warmth is in store for Christmas Eve.
Here are the weather headlines:

•Rain early Tuesday tapers to some drizzle and a few showers.
•Tuesday night and Wednesday, southerly winds strengthen. Temperatures start climbing
•Warmest weather arrives Christmas Eve (after sunset)
•Possible record breaking warmth Christmas Eve, and top 5 warmest Christmas Day (before sunrise).
•Strong westerly winds Christmas Day. Winds gust past 40 mph.
•Cooling enough during Christmas day for rain showers to change to some snow showers.

Moisture returned to central New York Monday night with steady rain as a weak area of low pressure tracks quickly northeast along the New England Coast. With that system departing we will turn our attention to the middle of the county.

During the day Tuesday, a storm system moving east through the Plains is forecast to weaken and give way to a new system developing over Louisiana. That new system is expected to track northward into the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

During the day Wednesday, Christmas Eve Day, the rapidly developing storm will move through the Great Lakes and track north-northeast toward southern Canada.

Southerly winds east of that storm center will strengthen and Wednesday and milder weather will spread (advect) northward from the southern U.S.

In time, the humidity will rise on these southerly winds. With the added moisture in the air, the remnants of the snow pack over the higher terrain to the south of Syracuse will almost certainly melt quickly if not entirely. By midnight Christmas Eve, much of Central New York will be in the 50 to 60 degree range.

The warmer weather should come with rain, maybe even some thunder Christmas Eve. The record high for Christmas Eve is 58° which was set in 1965.

On Christmas Day, cooler air wrapping eastward from the Midwest around our storm should spread across Central New York. After a mild start to the day, gusty west winds should send the temperature downward through the 40s and into the 30s by Christmas night. Speaking of winds, we are likely to have westerly winds gusting between 40 and 50 mph during Christmas Day.

Because we may still be quite mild before the cooler air arrives, the high temperature for Christmas Day should be early in the morning, and in the 50s. This Christmas could be in the top 5 warmest Christmas Days on record.

Amazingly, Friday, the day after Christmas, the weather looks quite pleasant with less wind and some sun. Then on Saturday, southerly winds should develop in advance of another weaker storm from the Mississippi Valley. We could be up to 50 degrees again.

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