Index Outlook: Near-term outlook is bearish

Last week, the benchmark indices breached key support levels and fell sharply. Tax-related Budget proposals that had spooked foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), continued to weigh on the market. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, standing firm on the proposals, despite pleas by FPIs, triggered a significant fall in indices on Friday.

Domestic corporate earnings, rupee action and progress of the monsoon are key factors to watch in the July month derivatives expiry week. On the global front, ECB rate action and US GDP data release are key events to note.

  Nifty 50 (11,419.2)

Following an initial rally, the Nifty index encountered a key resistance at 11,700 and declined 133 points or 1.2 per cent for the previous week. On Friday, the index had tumbled 1.5 per cent, breaching a key support at 11,500 . This fall has strengthened the downtrend that has been in place from the June high of 12,103. The index trades well below the 21- and 50-day moving averages. The daily relative strength index has entered the bearish zone from the neutral region and the weekly RSI features in the neutral region with a downward bias.

Also, the daily price rate of change indicator hovers in the negative territory, implying selling interest. Inability to move beyond the near-term resistance level of 11,700 has strengthened this barrier. Going forward, an emphatic break-out of this level is needed to bring back bullish momentum. Such a break can witness a corrective up-move to 11,800 and then to 11,850 levels in the short term. A further break above the vital resistance in the 11,850-11,900 band will reinforce the bullish momentum and push the index higher to 12,000, which is a key psychological resistance.

However, the index currently tests next crucial support at 11,426, the floor of the gap created in mid-May

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