It is no secret that there has been a major bull market like no investor has seen in the modern era. The problem is that the end of the bear market when the S&P 500 hit that proverbial 666 level in March of 2009 is now close to 10 years ago. What investors need to be concerned about now is how much higher the stock market can rise and when the end of the bull market will be.
24/7 Wall St. has put together a series of polls over time, but the one thing that seems to matter the most is the consensus targets from a large crowd of investors.
Many investors still refer to the Dow Jones industrial average as “the market,” but the real measurement of the market should be the S&P 500 Index. After all, the Dow is just 30 companies and the S&P 500 includes 500 of the nation’s top companies. The market capitalization is also a handy victory for the S&P 500 at $25.5 trillion, versus $7.5 trillion for the Dow.
The S&P 500 peaked at 2,940.91 as recently as September 21, and it was last seen trading off about 2.5% from the peak at 2,865 on October 10, 2018.
24/7 Wall St. is asking its readers to engage in a poll. The question is “How much higher can the S&P 500 rise before the next bear market?” We ran a similar poll back in 2014 and 17% of respondents said that the 2,000 was already getting toppy, but the largest poll response (some 33%) was that the S&P 500 would rise to at least 3,000. And now the S&P 500 has begun its challenge on the 3,000 hurdle, despite several days in a row of selling as interest rates have been rising.