Have We Reached Peak Short Term Market Optimism?

Markets: Brexit, US Shutdown, FOMC, Stock Market: Earnings start this week cause for concern given Apple (NASDAQ:) and Samsung (KS:) warning Market: Can the bullish run extend this week? Gold Market: Weaker USD remains the primary driver of bullish sentiment Currency Market: Euro had a mea culpa moment while possible CNH intervention looms. MYR strengths on Samurai bond issue.KRW could struggle. BTC: A deep dive to 35, $3500 that is


With the numerous crosscurrents still in play, US shutdown and Brexit notwithstanding, A mild bout of risk aversion seeped into global markets Friday pressuring US equities, oil prices and US bond yields lower, and we saw mostly buying as traders pared back extended short dollar positioning on the EUR and CNH.

There was no specific catalyst for aversion to set in except general concerns over Brexit, the US Government Shutdown but there was more balanced debate over the US dollars near term direction which led to a fidgety flip flop Friday of sorts as currency trades are getting crowded quickly in early 2019. ( more on this below in my currency note)

Although it didn’t move the US rates needle, US CPI data did carry some weight given that many Fed officials were suggesting the absence of inflation was a big concern. However, the CPI print was decent with both headline and core figures printing very much in line.

Brexit uncertainty continues, and the clock is ticking with PM May running out of time to get concessions on the unsettling nature of the backstop. This week could hopefully bring us some “meaningful” answers, from a meaningful vote in the UK parliament as we reach the next critical hurdle for Brexit. Currently, a yea vote looks very unlikely in the first attempt, but it may not be

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