Hedge Funds Net Long the SPX? – The Market Oracle

Crude Oil - What's Next ?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jan 06, 2015 – 07:20 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Normally this is where the SPX back-tests the 50-day Moving Average. Today is not a Pivot day, so I would not be surprised if SPX simply touches the 50-day and resumes its decline, but we have to be patient. It is not in the nature of a decline to miss a retest of support/resistance.

A decline beneath 2017.00 raises the probability that the decline has resumed.

The Hi-Lo Index opened above its mid-cycle support/resistance at 63.92 and is going higher. That may be due to hedge funds “buying the dip.” I have noticed that the Hi-Lo has been starting lower, but moving up intra-day. This may be the evidence of hedge funds buying the SPX.

This puts the Hi-Lo back on “aggressive sell,” not confirmed sell. It appears to be a normal retracement after an impulsive decline. I will reconsider my position should the Hi-Lo go above 262.00.

VIX has completed 5 waves from its Minor Wave 2 low. A retracement is in order. It appears that a decline is most likely to go to 17.30, but may go as far as the 50-day Moving Average at 15.72.

Respectfully,

Tony

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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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Crude Oil Drops Most in 6 Weeks, SPX 500 Exposed to Deeper Losses – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Technical Positioning Warning a Pullback is Ahead
  • SPX 500 Exposed to Deeper Losses, Aiming Below 2000 Mark
  • Gold Locked in Familiar Territory, Oil Drops Most in 6 Weeks

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be readying to turn lower after prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick. Near-term support is at 11577, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposingthe 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% level. Alternatively, a turn above the 50% Fib at 11577 clears the way for a test of the 61.8% expansion at 11719.

Crude Oil Drops Most in 6 Weeks, SPX 500 Exposed to Deeper Losses

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after producing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1988.00, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the December 16 low at 1968.30 and the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 aims for the 14.6% retracement at 2052.60.

Crude Oil Drops Most in 6 Weeks, SPX 500 Exposed to Deeper Losses

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above the December 22 low at 1170.59. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1156.00. Alternatively, a reversal above rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1208.32 targets the December 9 high at 1238.13.

Crude Oil Drops Most in 6 Weeks, SPX 500 Exposed to Deeper Losses

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices issued their largest daily decline in six weeks, with sellers now aiming to challenge the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 52.10. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% level at 49.37. Alternatively, a turn above the 38.2% Fib at 54.83 targets the 23.6% expansion at 58.20.

Crude Oil Drops Most in 6 Weeks, SPX 500 Exposed to Deeper Losses

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Gold Holding In Familiar Range, SPX 500 Makes Good On Reversal Signal – Investing.com

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Opens 2015 With Largest Advance in Three Weeks
  • SPX 500 Beginning to Make Good on Bearish Technical Setup
  • Crude Oil Vulnerable to Deeper Losses, Gold Treading Water

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to continue building higher having started 2015 off with the largest daily rally in three weeks. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansionat 11648 exposes the 61.8% level at 11719. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 11577 opens the door for a challenge of the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% expansion.

USD Chart

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2028.00, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1988.00. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib at 2052.60 aims for the December 5 high at 2079.60.

S&P Chart

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above the December 22 low at 1170.59. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1156.00. Alternatively, a reversal above rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1206.23 targets the December 9 high at 1238.13.

Gold Chart

Gold Chart

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to extend losses after breaking support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83, with a further push beneath that targeting the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.20 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.

Crude Oil Chart

Crude Oil Chart

Original post

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Next Target For SPX – Investing.com

SPX tested and held the daily middle band on Friday. That closed at 2053 and if that is broken with any confidence today then the next decent support is at the daily 50 MA and EMA in the 2036/7 area. If that breaks then the very obvious target will be a rising (wedge) support from 1820 in the 2010 area.

SPX Daily Chart

SPX Daily Chart

In all honesty I’ve been expecting a reversal back up to at least retest the highs before a larger move down started. That doesn’t have to happen of course and I’m starting to wonder if it will.

There was a very nice reversal setup building on Friday afternoon. A falling megaphone from 2085 broke up, with a supporting IHS at the low, and strong positive divergence on the 60min RSI 14. Generally speaking with this setup the retracement low would be in, but there was a strong rejection just before the close on Friday and ES has run down almost ten points more overnight.

This might just be a retest of the lows, that is always a risk on any break in either direction, often unexpected, and often very harsh, but if ES makes more than marginal new lows then that bull setup will most likely entirely fail, and the momentum from that failure might well take SPX to 2010.

SPX 15 MIN Chart

SPX 15 MIN Chart

I’ll be watching the open with great interest today. An open below the SPX daily middle band will be a strike against the bulls, Two strikes if the IHS is invalidated. We are nearing the stage where rising wedge support in the 2010 area will become the obvious next target.

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Gold Holding in Familiar Range, SPX 500 Makes Good on Reversal Signal – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Opens 2015 With Largest Advance in Three Weeks
  • SPX 500 Beginning to Make Good on Bearish Technical Setup
  • Crude Oil Vulnerable to Deeper Losses, Gold Treading Water

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to continue building higher having started 2015 off with the largest daily rally in three weeks. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansionat 11648 exposes the 61.8% level at 11719. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 11577 opens the door for a challenge of the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% expansion.

Gold Holding in Familiar Range, SPX 500 Makes Good on Reversal Signal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2028.00, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1988.00. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib at 2052.60 aims for the December 5 high at 2079.60.

Gold Holding in Familiar Range, SPX 500 Makes Good on Reversal Signal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above the December 22 low at 1170.59. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1156.00. Alternatively, a reversal above rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1206.23 targets the December 9 high at 1238.13.

Gold Holding in Familiar Range, SPX 500 Makes Good on Reversal Signal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to extend losses after breaking support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83, with a further push beneath that targeting the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.20 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.

Gold Holding in Familiar Range, SPX 500 Makes Good on Reversal Signal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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Stock Market Happy New Year – The Market Oracle

Dramatic Stock Market Selloff

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jan 03, 2015 – 03:38 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2089. After hitting an all time high at SPX 2094 by noon Monday, the market traded lower for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.35%, the NDX/NAZ lost 1.80%, and the DJ World index dropped 1.30%. Economics reports for the holiday week were sparse, and biased to the downside. On the downtick: construction spending, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing and the WLEI. On the uptick: consumer confidence and the monetary base. Next week’s report will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes and the Payrolls report.

LONG TERM: bull market

As we enter 2015 we are maintaining the same long term count as we have for past few years: a five primary wave Cycle wave [1] bull market underway. While this bull market has lasted longer than nearly everyone expected. It has maintained a reasonable OEW pattern, even through this very extended Primary wave. To recap: Primary waves I and II completed in 2011 and a quite complex Primary III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1 and simple Major waves 3 and 5. Primary wave III appears to be doing just the opposite with its five Major waves. Major wave 1 was simple, and Major wave 3 has thus far subdivided quite a bit. In fact, we are counting the recent activity from the October 2014 Intermediate wave iv low as Int. v of Major wave 3. And it appears to be subdividing into five Minor waves.

Should the count be correct, we would expect the current uptrend to reach around SPX 2214. Then after a correction of about 5%, the market should then make new highs to complete Major wave 3. Then after a correction of about 10% for Major wave 4, Major wave 5 should take the market even higher. It would appear this bull market still has plenty of uptrends, and time, before it concludes.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After completing Intermediate wave iv in October at SPX 1821, the market rallied to SPX 2079 by early December. Then after a 5% correction into mid-December to SPX 1973, the market rallied to new highs just before year’s end. We have labeled the SPX 2079 high as Minor wave 1, and the 1973 low as Minor 2 of Intermediate wave v. The current uptrend from that low thus far is only part of Minor wave 3.

When one reviews the RSI on the daily chart they will note that uptrends get, and stay, quite overbought for quite some time before they top out. This one just barely hit overbought before declining to below neutral this week. It still appears to have plenty of upside left based on this indicator alone. Medium term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the Minor wave 2 SPX 1973 low we have counted four waves up to Friday’s SPX 2046 low: 2012-1992-2094-2046 thus far. Our preference remains to count these four waves as Micro waves 1-2-3-4 of Minute wave one of Minor 3. However, the recent pullback of 48 points (2094-2046) was a lot larger than expected, and larger than that wave 2 pullback of 20 points (2012-1992). With this in mind, it is possible that Minute wave one ended at SPX 2094 and the recent pullback is Minute wave two.

Nevertheless, we are maintaining the Micro 1-2-3-4 count because of the Fibonacci relationships that have unfolded. Micro wave 1 (1973-2012) rose 39 points, Micro 2 retraced 50% of that advance to SPX 1992. Micro wave 3 rose 102 points, or an exact 2.618 relationship to Micro 1. Thus far, Micro wave 4 has retraced nearly 50% (2043) of that advance at Friday’s 2046 low. Should the market continue its pullback early next week, dropping below SPX 2040, then we would consider this pullback Minute wave two. Should the market rally beyond the OEW 2070 pivot, then we would consider Micro wave 5 underway. So the parameters for next week are below SPX 2040, and above SPX 2070. The first suggests a test of the 2019 pivot range, the second new highs are next. Short term support is at SPX 2058 and SPX 2046, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 0.8%.

The European markets were all lower on the week losing 1.2%.

The Commodity equity group was mixed and lost 2.3%.

The DJ World index lost 1.3% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 1.0% on the week.

Crude is still in a downtrend and lost 4.4% on the week.

Gold remains in an uptrend but lost 0.8% on the week.

The USD is still in an uptrend and gained 1.2% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Auto sales. Tuesday: Factory orders and ISM services. Wednesday: the ADP, Trade deficit and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: the ECB meets, weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Friday: Payrolls (est. +245K) and Wholesale inventories. Best to your weekend, week, and new year!

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Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro – All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk – The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

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SPX Trades Lower As 2015 Begins – Investing.com

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2089. After hitting an all time high at SPX 2094 by noon Monday, the market traded lower for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.35%, the NDX/NAZ lost 1.80%, and the DJ World index dropped 1.30%. Economics reports for the holiday week were sparse, and biased to the downside. On the downtick: construction spending, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing and the WLEI. On the uptick: consumer confidence and the monetary base. Next week’s report will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes and the Payrolls report.

LONG TERM: bull market

As we enter 2015 we are maintaining the same long term count as we have for past few years: a five primary wave Cycle wave [1] bull market underway. While this bull market has lasted longer than nearly everyone expected. It has maintained a reasonable OEW pattern, even through this very extended Primary wave. To recap: Primary waves I and II completed in 2011 and a quite complex Primary III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1 and simple Major waves 3 and 5. Primary wave III appears to be doing just the opposite with its five Major waves. Major wave 1 was simple, and Major wave 3 has thus far subdivided quite a bit. In fact, we are counting the recent activity from the October 2014 Intermediate wave IV low as Int. V of Major wave 3. And it appears to be subdividing into five Minor waves.

SPX Weekly Chart

SPX Weekly Chart

Should the count be correct, we would expect the current uptrend to reach around SPX 2214. Then after a correction of about 5%, the market should then make new highs to complete Major wave 3. Then after a correction of about 10% for Major wave 4, Major wave 5 should take the market even higher. It would appear this bull market still has plenty of uptrends, and time, before it concludes.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After completing Intermediate wave IV in October at SPX 1821, the market rallied to SPX 2079 by early December. Then after a 5% correction into mid-December to SPX 1973, the market rallied to new highs just before year’s end. We have labeled the SPX 2079 high as Minor wave 1, and the 1973 low as Minor 2 of Intermediate wave V. The current uptrend from that low thus far is only part of Minor wave 3.

SPX Daily Chart

SPX Daily Chart

When one reviews the RSI on the daily chart they will note that uptrends get, and stay, quite overbought for quite some time before they top out. This one just barely hit overbought before declining to below neutral this week. It still appears to have plenty of upside left based on this indicator alone. Medium term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the Minor wave 2 SPX 1973 low we have counted four waves up to Friday’s SPX 2046 low: 2012-1992-2094-2046 thus far. Our preference remains to count these four waves as Micro waves 1-2-3-4 of Minute wave one of Minor 3. However, the recent pullback of 48 points (2094-2046) was a lot larger than expected, and larger than that wave 2 pullback of 20 points (2012-1992). With this in mind, it is possible that Minute wave one ended at SPX 2094 and the recent pullback is Minute wave 2.

SPX Hourly Chart

SPX Hourly Chart

Nevertheless, we are maintaining the Micro 1-2-3-4 count because of the Fibonacci relationships that have unfolded. Micro wave 1 (1973-2012) rose 39 points, Micro 2 retraced 50% of that advance to SPX 1992. Micro wave 3 rose 102 points, or an exact 2.618 relationship to Micro 1. Thus far, Micro wave 4 has retraced nearly 50% (2043) of that advance at Friday’s 2046 low. Should the market continue its pullback early next week, dropping below SPX 2040, then we would consider this pullback Minute wave 2. Should the market rally beyond the OEW 2070 pivot, then we would consider Micro wave 5 underway. So the parameters for next week are below SPX 2040, and above SPX 2070. The first suggests a test of the 2019 pivot range, the second new highs are next. Short term support is at SPX 2058 and SPX 2046, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence.

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Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Break Downward From Consolidation Range
  • SPX 500 Technical Positioning Warns a Downturn is Ahead
  • Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses, Gold Prices Aim Higher

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have flat-lined after hitting a five-year high, with negative RSI divergence warning a downturn may be ahead. Near-term resistance is at 11577, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11648. Alternatively, a turn below the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% Fib clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11434.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below the 2067.90-79.60 area marked by the December 5 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion exposes the 23.6% level at 2029.80. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fibat 2098.60 targets the 61.8% expansion at 2129.40.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher anew after a brief respite, clearing resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1196.08. Buyers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 1211.85, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% Fib at 1224.59. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1196.08 targets the December 22 lowat 1170.59.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to extend losses after breaking support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83, with a further push beneath that targeting the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.20 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

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Crude Oil Hits New 5-Year Low, SPX 500 Reversal Threat Remains – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Continues to Consolidate in Narrow Trading Range
  • SPX 500 Sets New Yearly High But Reversal Threat Remains
  • Crude Oil Hits New 5-Year Low, Gold Rejected Below $1200

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices aredigesting gains near a five-year high but negative RSI divergence casts doubt on immediate follow-through. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 11577 exposes the 50% level at 11648. Alternatively, a reversal below the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% Fib opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 11434.

Crude Oil Hits New 5-Year Low, SPX 500 Reversal Threat Remains

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged above the December 5 high at 2079.60, exposing the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2098.60. A daily close above this barrier exposes the 61.8% level at 2129.40. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints a turn lower may be looming. A turn back below 2079.60 sees initially support at 2067.90, the 38.2% Fib.

Crude Oil Hits New 5-Year Low, SPX 500 Reversal Threat Remains

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled upward to test resistance at 1196.08, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1211.85. Near-term support is at 1170.59, the December 22 low.

Crude Oil Hits New 5-Year Low, SPX 500 Reversal Threat Remains

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices narrowly broke support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with sellers now aiming to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83. A further push beneath that targets the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.50 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.

Crude Oil Hits New 5-Year Low, SPX 500 Reversal Threat Remains

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

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Gold Attempts to Mount Recovery, US Dollar and SPX 500 Vulnerable – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar, S&P 500 May Turn Lower from Multi-Year Highs
  • Crude Oil Remain Locked in Range Above $58/barrel Figure
  • Gold Prices Try to Mount Recovery, Eyeing $1200/oz Level

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices flat-lined after hitting a five-year high, with negative RSI divergence warning a downturn may be ahead. Near-term resistance is at 11577, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11648. Alternatively, a turn below the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% Fib clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11434.

Gold Attempts to Mount Recovery, US Dollar and SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged above the December 5 high at 2079.60, exposing the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2098.60. A daily close above this barrier exposes the 61.8% level at 2129.40. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints a turn lower may be looming. A turn back below 2079.60 sees initially support at 2067.90, the 38.2% Fib.

Gold Attempts to Mount Recovery, US Dollar and SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled upward to test resistance at 1196.08, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1211.85. Alternatively, a move below the 14.6% Fib at 1186.36 targets the December 22 low at 1170.59.

Gold Attempts to Mount Recovery, US Dollar and SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are in consolidation mode above the $58.00/barrel figure. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 58.20 exposes the 38.2% level at 54.83. Alternatively, a bounce above the 23.6% Fib retracement at 63.94 targets the 38.2% threshold at 67.31.

Gold Attempts to Mount Recovery, US Dollar and SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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