Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as SPX 500 Bounce Stalls at Resistance – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Pauses to Digest After Declining to 3-Week Low
  • S&P 500 Recovery Fails to Puncture Trend Line Resistance
  • Gold Rebound Hinted Ahead, Crude Oil Aiming Above $66

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest losses after sliding to the weakest level in three weeks. Near-term support is at 11834-9 area (May 20 close, 50% Fibonacci retracement), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 11790. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib at 11887 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% retracement at 11946

Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as SPX 500 Bounce Stalls at Resistance

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling after launched a recovery at rising trend line support set from late-March lows. A break above trend line resistance at 2109.50 exposes the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2119.10. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 2093.50 targets the 2077.20-80.00 area (trend line, 61.8% Fib retracement).

Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as SPX 500 Bounce Stalls at Resistance

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices narrowly edged above falling channel resistance, warning that the down move from mid-May highs may be unraveling. A break of trend line resistance at 1201.02 exposes the May 18 high at 1232.30. Alternatively, turn below channel resistance-turned-support at 1178.44 targets the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1169.31.

Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as SPX 500 Bounce Stalls at Resistance

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be resuming the recovery launched from mid-January lows after completing a Flag continuation pattern. Near-term resistance is at 66.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 70.25. Alternatively, a move below Flag top resistance-turned-support at 64.34 targets a rising trend line at 62.79.

Gold, Crude Oil Aim Higher as SPX 500 Bounce Stalls at Resistance

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Crude Oil May Be Resuming Recovery, SPX 500 Bounces from Support – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Still Breaks Range, Sinks to Lowest in Three Weeks
  • S&P 500 Launches Sharp Recovery from Trend Line Support
  • Crude Oil Rebound from Mid-January Low May Be Resuming

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined to a three-week low after breaking range support. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 11790 exposes the 76.4% level at 11731. Alternatively, a rebound back above the 50% Fib at 11839clears the way for a test of the 38.2% retracement at 11887.

Crude Oil May Be Resuming Recovery, SPX 500 Bounces from Support

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched a swift recovery after testing rising trend line support set from late-March lows. From here, a break above trend line resistance at 2110.80 exposes the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2119.10. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 2093.50 targets the 2077.20-79.30 area (trend line, 61.8% Fib retracement).

Crude Oil May Be Resuming Recovery, SPX 500 Bounces from Support

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices narrowly edged above falling channel resistance, warning that the down move from mid-May highs may be unraveling. A break of trend line resistance at 1201.51 exposes the May 18 high at 1232.30. Alternatively, turn below channel resistance-turned-support at 1181.01 targets the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1169.31.

Crude Oil May Be Resuming Recovery, SPX 500 Bounces from Support

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be resuming the recovery launched from mid-January lows after completing a Flag continuation pattern. Near-term resistance is at 66.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 70.25. Alternatively, a move below trend line support at 62.62 targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 60.27.

Crude Oil May Be Resuming Recovery, SPX 500 Bounces from Support

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Exclusive: Vanguard Founder John Bogle Projects 'Nominal To Zero' Real … – Benzinga

Exclusive: Vanguard Founder John Bogle Projects 'Nominal To Zero' Real Returns Over The Next Decade

Benzinga recently had the chance to speak with John Bogle, founder and former CEO of The Vanguard Group and author of best-selling book “Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor.”

Benzinga asked Mr. Bogle about what kind of returns investors can expect over the next decade and if he believes that stock investors should be fearful that the six-year-old bull market is nearing its peak.

Is The Stock Market Overpriced?

With the S&P 500 more than 30 percent higher than its pre-Financial Crisis peak, Bogle was asked if he believes the market is currently overvalued.

“I think it’s fully valued, but not overvalued in any material way,” Bogle explained.

What Kind Of Returns Can Investors Expect Over The Next Decade?

Bogle projects long-term stock market returns based on dividend yields and earnings growth. His math is elegantly simple: the current dividend yield of about 2.0 percent plus projected earnings growth of around 5.0 percent produces  a 7.0 percent return.

Related Link: Goldman Sachs: S&P Will Hit 2150 By August

Bogle sees potential for the market’s price to earnings ratio (P/E), which is currently around 20, to revert to as low as 15 in coming years. That 25 percent drop equates to about a 3.0 percent annual negative speculative return.

When this negative return is subtracted from the 7.0 percent dividend and earnings return, it yields a projected overall return of about 4.0 percent.

Bogle is also projecting 2.0-3.0 percent bond yields over the next decade as well. According to Bogle, a portfolio comprised of a 50/50 balance of stocks and bonds would likely yield around 3.5 percent returns over the next 10 years.

“When you factor in the costs associated with index funds, inflation, and taxes, you are actually looking at real returns of nominal to zero,” Bogle explained.

Market Crash Imminent?

Although Bogle believes that the stock market is currently fully valued, he assured that he does not feel that investors should be running for the hills.

“I don’t think we’re at the edge of some great cataclysmic crash, but anyone that invests should be prepared for a 25 to 30 percent decline because they do come along from time to time.”

Bogle added that corporate earnings always eventually overwhelm the swings in the speculative market.

Posted-In: John BogleAnalyst Color Bonds Top Stories Economics Exclusives Markets Interview Best of Benzinga

© 2015 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Gold and SPX 500 Digesting Losses, Oil Bounces from Trend Support – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Still Waiting for Direction Guidance in a Choppy Range
  • S&P 500 Pause to Digest Losses After Three Days on the Downside
  • Crude Oil Rebounds, Gold Prices Oscillating in Familiar Territory

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to mark time in a choppy range after opening June at a seven-week high. Near-term support is at 11887, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11839. Alternatively, a move above the 12024-43 area (June 1 and June 5 highs) opens the door for a challenge of double top resistance at 12149.

Gold and SPX 500 Digesting Losses, Oil Bounces from Trend Support

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest losses after three consecutive days of downward momentum. Sellers are now challenging the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2077.20, with a break below that exposing the 76.4% level at 2063.00. Alternatively, a move back above the 50% Fib at 2088.60 targets the 38.2% retracement at 2100.00.

Gold and SPX 500 Digesting Losses, Oil Bounces from Trend Support

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after dropping to a three-month low. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1169.31 exposes the 50% level at 1149.85. Alternatively, a move above support-turned-resistance at 1178.09, the March 31 low, targets the 23.6% Fib at 1193.38.

Gold and SPX 500 Digesting Losses, Oil Bounces from Trend Support

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to oscillate above support at a rising trend line guiding the move higher since mid-January. A break below this barrier (now at 62.64) exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 60.27. Alternatively, a reversal above downward-sloping resistance at 65.13 targets the May 6 high at 69.60, followed by the 38.2% Fib expansion at 70.25.

Gold and SPX 500 Digesting Losses, Oil Bounces from Trend Support

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Crude Oil Coils Up at Trend Support, SPX 500 Sinks to Monthly Low – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Digesting in Choppy Range After Hitting 7-Week High
  • S&P 500 Extends Decline for 3rd Straight Day, Hits Monthly Low
  • Gold Hits 3-Month Low, Crude Oil Marks Time at Trend Support

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices areconsolidating in a choppy range after opening June at a seven-week high. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 11887 exposes the 50% level at 11839. Alternatively, a rebound above the 12024-43 area (June 1 and June 5 highs) clears the way for a test of double top resistance at 12149.

Crude Oil Coils Up at Trend Support, SPX 500 Sinks to Monthly Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to push lower after breaking two-month trend support. Sellers are now challenging the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2077.20, with a break below that exposing the 76.4% level at 2063.00. Alternatively, a move back above the 50% Fib at 2088.60 targets the 38.2% retracement at 2100.00.

Crude Oil Coils Up at Trend Support, SPX 500 Sinks to Monthly Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after dropping to a three-month low. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1169.31 exposes the 50% level at 1149.85. Alternatively, a move above support-turned-resistance at 1178.09, the March 31 low, targets the 23.6% Fib at 1193.38.

Crude Oil Coils Up at Trend Support, SPX 500 Sinks to Monthly Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to test support at a rising trend line guiding the move higher since mid-January. A break below this barrier (now at 62.49) exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 60.27. Alternatively, a reversal above downward-sloping resistance at 65.23 targets the May 6 high at 69.60.

Crude Oil Coils Up at Trend Support, SPX 500 Sinks to Monthly Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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TNX Declining. Another Confirmation of the SPX Sell Signal – The Market Oracle

Biggest Debt Bomb in History

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jun 08, 2015 – 03:03 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is down enough to suggest that the descending trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Top is being triggered this morning.

Remember, both the VIX and Hi-Lo gave us a confirmed sell signal last Friday. This signal suggests the SPX may decline beneath 1600, as suggested by the Megaphone formation, by the end of the month. However, the ride will be bumpy on the way.

The elapsed time from the June 20 high to the June 3 high is exactly 8.6 days. This next decline may be longer and deeper, since it is a Wave [iii].

The next decline may take 10.75 days, going to the close of trading on June 16. Then a very swift retracement rally to Friday, June 19, encompassing 12.9 days total.

TNX has made its initial declining impulse and retracement back to Cycle top resistance. It appears to be capable of resuming its decline, confirming the flow (out of stocks) into bonds. The Broadening Wedge formation is giving us a possible target for the decline. That is a pretty healthy 27% from this morning’s level.

Bloomberg reports, “If the Federal Reserve is really so intent on raising interest rates this year, why is Wall Street chopping its forecasts for bond yields?

For all the hand-wringing over the recent selloff that wiped out about $1.2 trillion in value from the global bond market, the fixed-income market’s best and brightest have actually taken down their year-end estimates for Treasuries in four of the past five months.

It amounts to a dangerous game of chicken, in which many analysts and investors are betting the Fed won’t lift rates too fast because of the damage it may inflict on the economy — even after last week’s stronger-than-expected jobs report. And the stakes have never been higher for holders of debt globally, who are more exposed to the potential for big losses than at any time in history, based on a metric known as duration.”

To make matters worse, the DOJ is launching a probe on Treasury market manipulation. This will likely add to the volatility in bonds.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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Gold Drops to 3-Month Low, SPX 500 Extends Losses After Trend Break – DailyFX

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Targeting June Swing High as Recovery Accelerates
  • S&P 500 Continues to Decline After Snapping 2-Month Uptrend
  • Crude Oil Stalls at Trend Support, Gold Drops to 3-Month Low

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices areaccelerating upward anew, with prices on pace to challenge monthly highs. Near-term resistance is at 12018, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 12067. Alternatively, a turn below the 236% Fib at 11959 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 11922.

Gold Drops to 3-Month Low, SPX 500 Extends Losses After Trend Break

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continued downward after breaking two-month trend support. Sellers are now challenging the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 2088.60, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% level at 2077.20. Alternatively, a move back above the 38.2% Fib at 2100.00 targets trend line support-turned-resistance at 2115.50.

Gold Drops to 3-Month Low, SPX 500 Extends Losses After Trend Break

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to push lower, now aiming to challenge support at 1164.36 marked by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that exposes the 100% level at 1152.05. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 61.8% Fib at 1171.98 targets the 50% expansion at 1178.14.

Gold Drops to 3-Month Low, SPX 500 Extends Losses After Trend Break

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to test support at a rising trend line guiding the move higher since mid-January. A break below this barrier (now at 62.35) exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 60.27. Alternatively, a reversal above downward-sloping resistance at 65.42 targets the May 6 high at 69.60.

Gold Drops to 3-Month Low, SPX 500 Extends Losses After Trend Break

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Gold, Crude Oil Drop From Ranges As SPX 500 Breaks Trend Support – Investing.com

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Finds Interim Support, Corrects Upward
  • S&P 500 Breaks 2-Month Support to Challenge 2100
  • Gold, Crude Oil Break Down from Familiar Ranges

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices found interim support and mounted a cautious recovery after declining to a two-week low. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 11887 exposes the 50% level at 11839. Alternatively, a rebound above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 11922 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% threshold at 11959.

Gold, Crude Oil Drop from Ranges as SPX 500 Breaks Trend Support

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke below two-month trend support to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement squarely at the 2100.00 figure. A break below this barrier exposes the 50% level at 2088.60. Trend line support-turned-resistance is now at 2111.10.

Gold, Crude Oil Drop from Ranges as SPX 500 Breaks Trend Support

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke downward out of consolidation, aiming to challenge support at 1171.98 marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that exposes the 76.4% level at 1164.36. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 50% Fib at 1178.14 targets the 38.2% expansion at 1184.30.

Gold, Crude Oil Drop from Ranges as SPX 500 Breaks Trend Support

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices narrowly edged past support guiding the uptrend since mid-January. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 60.27, with a break below that exposing the 50% level at 57.39. Alternatively, a move back above the trend line – now recast as resistance at 62.32 – targets a downward-sloping barrier at 65.57.

Gold, Crude Oil Drop from Ranges as SPX 500 Breaks Trend Support

Original post

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Finally, it's all coming together for the US labor market (DIA, SPX, SPY, QQQ … – SFGate

Myles Udland, provided by

Published 3:40 am, Saturday, June 6, 2015

may job gains

Everything is coming together for the US labor market. 

On Friday, we learned that the economy added 280,000 jobs in May, more than Wall Street economists had forecast. What’s more, this report showed that the amount of jobs added in April and March was also revised higher by 32,000, bringing the average job gains over the last three months to 207,000. 

But the biggest part of the report on Friday, however, was that at long last we are seeing wage growth

Worker wages grew by 0.3% in May compared to the prior month and rose 2.3% over the prior year. The year-on-year increase was the most since October 2009 and shows the final piece of the labor market puzzle is being filled in. 

In a note to clients following the report, Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Sløk wrote, “This is what we have been waiting for since 2009. In other words, the virtuous cycle has begun.”

Why wages matter

Right now, markets are concerned about one thing: the Federal Reserve. 

slok

Markets expect that before the end of 2015, the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time since July 2006. The latest Fed speech from New York Fed president Bill Dudley affirmed this view, and while markets don’t expect the Fed to do anything at its next policy meeting on June 16-17, most market participants see the Fed raising rates before the end of this year. 

The Federal Reserve, for its part, is trying to fulfill its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Currently, the Fed is targeting 2% inflation and projects the labor market will be at “full employment” when the unemployment rate is at 5.1%. 

But these are just projections. 

What the Fed really needs to see is wage growth, as more money in the pockets of American workers and consumers has been the missing ingredient since the financial crisis. 

And so while the Fed expects that with the unemployment rate at 5.1% the economy will be facing inflationary pressures, perhaps the unemployment rate at which inflation begins to take is somewhat higher. Friday certainly suggests this might be the case. 

Encouraging participation

Part of why the unemployment rate rose on Friday despite the stronger-than-expected job gains is that more people joined the labor force, with the labor force participation rate rising to 62.9%. 

And so this increase is actually an encouraging sign for the labor market. People who are out of work and looking for a job are considered part of the labor force, and much of the decline in the labor force participation rate over the last several years was attributed to workers dropping out of the workforce entirely. But with an increase in labor-force participation, not only are people actually working, but people are also now trying to find work. 

discouragedIn addition to the increase in the labor-force participation, there was also a noted decrease in the number of discouraged workers — defined as those out of the work force and want a job but aren’t trying to find one — in May. 

And so while outright job gains and wage increases are the kinds of top-line things economists and policy makers want to see in the labor market, these lesser-watched indicators showing that Americans are simply less downbeat about their job prospects are the signs of a robust labor market.

On Friday, bonds sold off as markets took Friday’s labor market as a sign of potential Fed tightening to come. For the last several years, betting on Fed inaction with respect to interest rates has been a winning trade.

But as wages increase and job gains remain solid, this time, at least for Fed policy, might actually be different. 

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: The 9 highest-paying jobs with openings right now

See Also:

SEE ALSO: The jobs report was the ‘best of all possible worlds for the Fed’

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SPX Lifted to Focus List at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (SPW) – Dakota Financial News

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SPX Co. logoJPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded shares of SPX (NYSE:SPW) to a focus list rating in a report released on Tuesday.

SPW has been the subject of a number of other recent research reports. Analysts at Susquehanna lowered their price target on shares of SPX from $95.00 to $87.00 and set a neutral rating on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, May 5th. Analysts at Zacks reiterated a hold rating on shares of SPX in a research note on Friday, May 1st. Analysts at Barclays lowered their price target on shares of SPX from $95.00 to $86.00 and set an overweight rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, April 30th. Finally, analysts at RBC Capital lowered their price target on shares of SPX from $90.00 to $84.00 and set a sector perform rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, April 30th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, seven have given a hold rating, four have assigned a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company. SPX currently has an average rating of Hold and a consensus target price of $96.00.

SPX (NYSE:SPW) opened at 75.21 on Tuesday. SPX has a one year low of $73.36 and a one year high of $111.47. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $78. and its 200-day moving average is $83.. The company has a market cap of $3.09 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.60.

SPX (NYSE:SPW) last announced its earnings results on Wednesday, April 29th. The company reported $0.05 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.08 by $0.03. The company had revenue of $947.00 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $982.61 million. During the same quarter last year, the company posted $0.27 earnings per share. SPX’s revenue was down 12.1% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, analysts predict that SPX will post $4.60 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, July 1st. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, June 16th will be given a dividend of $0.375 per share. This represents a $1.50 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.99%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, June 12th.

SPX Corporation (NYSE:SPW) is an engineering solutions company. The Company’s products and solutions globally caters to power and energy and processed foods and beverages sectors. The Company’s key products include processing systems and components for the food and beverage industry, pumps, valves and filtration equipment used in oil and gas processing, power transformers used by utility companies, and cooling systems for power generation plants and HVAC applications.

Receive News & Ratings for SPX Daily – Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts’ ratings for SPX and related companies with MarketBeat.com’s FREE daily email newsletter.

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