Amazon's stock rallies for 3rd straight day, retraces nearly half what it lost amid COVID-19 crisis

Shares of Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +2.78% rallied 4.8% in afternoon trading Thursday, and have now retraced nearly half what they lost as a result of the COVID-19 health crisis. The stock closed at a record $2,170.22 on Feb. 19, then fell $493.61, or 22.7%, to a one-year closing low of $1,676.61 on March 16. After rising $241.14, or 14.4%, amid a three-day win streak since that closing low, the e-commerce giant’s stock has retraced 48.9% of the COVID-19 decline. As more retail stores announce closures, Amazon has said that it was experiencing high demand for coronavirus-related items, including disinfecting wipes, hand sanitizer and paper towels. Among shares of the other largest market-capitalization companies, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +1.64% has retraced 21.4% of its COVID-19 selloff, Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.76% has retraced 6.8% and Google-parent Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, +1.87% has retraced 11.5%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.94% has retraced just 2.0%, as it closed at a fresh low on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +2.30% has retraced 9.6%.

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The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.94%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +2.30% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...

The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -4.54%, the S&P 500 index SPX, -4.33% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, -3.79% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...

The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.61%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.17% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +1.40% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...

The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.94%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +2.30% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...

The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.94%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +2.30% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...

The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.94%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +2.30% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...

The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -4.54%, the S&P 500 index SPX, -4.33% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, -3.79% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...

The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say

How low can stock markets go?

While the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the economy — it tends to peak before the onset of an economic recession and bottom before an economic recovery — the unique nature of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic has made forecasting an eventual stock-market recovery particularly difficult.

Despite the cascade of negative headlines as increased coronavirus testing capacity reveals the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., some analysts are arguing that the equity market may have already begun a bottoming process, and that equity prices are nearing their most attractive levels.

Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.94%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +2.30% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history.

Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research wrote in a Thursday note to clients that he sees evidence of investor sentiment reaching such low levels as to be a contrarian indicator that points to attractive equity returns over the next three months.

As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.

“If we could add an anecdote, an emotional portfolio manager pleading on TV for what amounts to martial law reinforces the extreme in sentiment data we’re quantifying,” DeGraaf wrote, referring to a widely viewed interview of hedge fund

Read More Here...