Today in history: September 15

Today is Sunday, Sept. 15, the 258th day of 2019. There are 107 days left in the year.

Today’s Highlight in History:

On Sept. 15, 1963, four black girls were killed when a bomb went off during Sunday services at the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, Alabama. (Three Ku Klux Klansmen were eventually convicted for their roles in the blast.)

On this date:

In 1776, British forces occupied New York City during the American Revolution.

In 1887, the city of Philadelphia launched a three-day celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Constitution of the United States.

In 1935, the Nuremberg Laws deprived German Jews of their citizenship.

In 1940, during the World War II Battle of Britain, the tide turned as the Royal Air Force inflicted heavy losses upon the Luftwaffe.

In 1950, during the Korean conflict, United Nations forces landed at Incheon in the south and began their drive toward Seoul (sohl).

In 1959, Nikita Khrushchev became the first Soviet head of state to visit the United States as he arrived at Andrews Air Force Base outside Washington.

In 1961, the United States began Operation Nougat, a series of underground nuclear explosions in the Nevada Test Site, two weeks after the Soviet Union resumed testing its nuclear weapons.

In 1972, a federal grand jury in Washington indicted seven men in connection with the Watergate break-in.

In 1981, the Senate Judiciary Committee voted unanimously to approve the Supreme Court nomination of Sandra Day O’Connor.

In 1985, Nike began selling its “Air Jordan 1” sneaker.

In 2001, President George W. Bush ordered U.S. troops to get ready for war and braced Americans for a long, difficult assault against terrorists to avenge the Sept. 11 attack. Beleaguered Afghans streamed out of Kabul, fearing a U.S. military strike against Taliban rulers

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Tadawul Announces Extending The Closing Auction And The Trade At Last Sessions On September 19 Ahead Of The Fourth Tranche Inclusion In FTSE Russell And The Second And Final Tranche Inclusion In S&P Dow Jones As An Emerging Market

The Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) announces extending the Closing Auction session for a total duration of 20 minutes (instead of 10 minutes), and the Trade at Last session for a total duration of 20 minutes (instead of 10 minutes). Accordingly, the Closing Auction session will start from 3:00 p.m. until 3:20 p.m. AST, and the Trade at Last session will start from 3:20 p.m. until 3:40 p.m. AST on Thursday 19/9/2019 only. 

The one-day extensions come ahead of the fourth tranche inclusion in FTSE Russell and the second and final tranche inclusion in S&P Dow Jones as an Emerging Market starting on Monday 23/9/2019 based on the closing prices of Thursday 19/9/2019 with an inclusion factor of 25% in FTSE Russel and 50% in S&P Dow Jones. 

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Jump In Yields Didn't Derail Equity Rally While Sterling Rallies Ahead Of The Weekend On (Misplaced) Brexit Optimism

The most striking thing about last week’s price action was the surge in US yields. The 10-year yield jumped about 34 basis points, the most in three years and returned to levels not seen since August 2 (1.90%). A deluge of investment-grade corporate bonds and US Treasuries ($78 bln auctioned to lukewarm reception), coupled with an acceleration of core CPI (highest in 11 years), optimism on the trade front, and Mnuchin’s insistence on pushing forward with an extra-long bond (50, and possibly 100 year-maturities), though has been repeatedly advised against it by primary dealers, were among the potent drivers. There was a dramatic shift from fixed-income funds to equities funds according to some industry reports.

Part of the rise in the long-end can be attributed to swings in sentiment about the trajectory of overnight rates. The implied yield of the January 2020 Fed funds futures contract rose 14 bp last week. The market has assumed next week’s cut, which would be the second cut here in H2 19, and a third one. The issue had been the fourth one, and the market priced it out last week, and for the first time in over a month, the market has a small doubt about the follow-up one.

The US dollar had a mixed week. Sterling led the advancing currencies with almost a 1.8% gain. Full three-quarters of the rally took place in the last session ahead of the weekend amid some hopes that a work-around around the controversial backstop may be reached. We remain skeptical that the circle can be squared, which is to say the border between the EU and the UK cannot be between Northern Ireland and the UK. But if it is between the UK and Ireland, there must be a backstop to preserve the previous treaty

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Jump In Yields Didn't Derail Equity Rally While Sterling Rallies Ahead Of The Weekend On (Misplaced) Brexit Optimism

The most striking thing about last week’s price action was the surge in US yields. The 10-year yield jumped about 34 basis points, the most in three years and returned to levels not seen since August 2 (1.90%). A deluge of investment-grade corporate bonds and US Treasuries ($78 bln auctioned to lukewarm reception), coupled with an acceleration of core CPI (highest in 11 years), optimism on the trade front, and Mnuchin’s insistence on pushing forward with an extra-long bond (50, and possibly 100 year-maturities), though has been repeatedly advised against it by primary dealers, were among the potent drivers. There was a dramatic shift from fixed-income funds to equities funds according to some industry reports.

Part of the rise in the long-end can be attributed to swings in sentiment about the trajectory of overnight rates. The implied yield of the January 2020 Fed funds futures contract rose 14 bp last week. The market has assumed next week’s cut, which would be the second cut here in H2 19, and a third one. The issue had been the fourth one, and the market priced it out last week, and for the first time in over a month, the market has a small doubt about the follow-up one.

The US dollar had a mixed week. Sterling led the advancing currencies with almost a 1.8% gain. Full three-quarters of the rally took place in the last session ahead of the weekend amid some hopes that a work-around around the controversial backstop may be reached. We remain skeptical that the circle can be squared, which is to say the border between the EU and the UK cannot be between Northern Ireland and the UK. But if it is between the UK and Ireland, there must be a backstop to preserve the previous treaty

Read More Here...

Jump In Yields Didn't Derail Equity Rally While Sterling Rallies Ahead Of The Weekend On (Misplaced) Brexit Optimism

The most striking thing about last week’s price action was the surge in US yields. The 10-year yield jumped about 34 basis points, the most in three years and returned to levels not seen since August 2 (1.90%). A deluge of investment-grade corporate bonds and US Treasuries ($78 bln auctioned to lukewarm reception), coupled with an acceleration of core CPI (highest in 11 years), optimism on the trade front, and Mnuchin’s insistence on pushing forward with an extra-long bond (50, and possibly 100 year-maturities), though has been repeatedly advised against it by primary dealers, were among the potent drivers. There was a dramatic shift from fixed-income funds to equities funds according to some industry reports.

Part of the rise in the long-end can be attributed to swings in sentiment about the trajectory of overnight rates. The implied yield of the January 2020 Fed funds futures contract rose 14 bp last week. The market has assumed next week’s cut, which would be the second cut here in H2 19, and a third one. The issue had been the fourth one, and the market priced it out last week, and for the first time in over a month, the market has a small doubt about the follow-up one.

The US dollar had a mixed week. Sterling led the advancing currencies with almost a 1.8% gain. Full three-quarters of the rally took place in the last session ahead of the weekend amid some hopes that a work-around around the controversial backstop may be reached. We remain skeptical that the circle can be squared, which is to say the border between the EU and the UK cannot be between Northern Ireland and the UK. But if it is between the UK and Ireland, there must be a backstop to preserve the previous treaty

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Week ahead would trade with positive bias (Column: Market Watch)

The week saw markets making some gains and confidence returning. US and China relations too improved, with China taking the first step by agreeing to buy US farm produce and removing the duties that were slapped by them. In reciprocation US deferred the increase in duties that were to happen. All this leads to hope that the US-China trade dispute would get resolved sooner than later.

The BSE SENSEX gained 403.22 points or 1.09 per cent to close at 37,384.99 points, while NIFTY gained 129.70 points or 1.118 per cent to close at 11,075.90 points. Gains were recorded on three of the four trading days while they lost on one day. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.35 per cent, 1.38 per cent and 1.52 per cent, respectively. The BSE MIDCAP gained 2.25 per cent while BSE SMALLCAP performed even better and gained 3.32 per cent.

The Indian Rupee gained 80 paisa or 1.12 per cent, to close at Rs 70.92 to the US Dollar. On the back of improvement in sentiment on the US-China front, Dow Jones gained 422.06 points, or 1.58 per cent, to close at 27,219.52 points.

BPCL was a star performer on the back of expectations that the government may divest its entire majority holding of 53.29 per cent to a strategic partner. This would help the government garner about Rs 47,000 crore at current valuations and help achieve a major part of the 1.05 lakh crore target from divestment in 2019-2020.

Shares of BPCL gained Rs 29.85, or 7.87 per cent, to close at Rs 408.90. Sister companies HPCL gained 3.495 while IOC was up 2.52 per cent. Further, the government ownership in IOC and HPCL would see it control more than 50 per cent of the hydro fuel business.

The Finance

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Israel's Netanyahu Poised to Fall After Election, GeoQuant Says

(Bloomberg) — Data continue to indicate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party will lose power in elections set for September 17, according to GeoQuant, which calls itself an “AI-driven political risk intelligence” firm.

Israel’s “Government Instability Risk” continues to spike going into the vote, according to GeoQuant, reinforcing the firm’s prediction since May that Netanyahu is set to fail. “Despite Netanyahu’s recent pledge to annex territory in the Jordan Valley if he is re-elected – the current Likud-led government is too weak to survive the election,” Geoquant said in a note.

GeoQuant also flagged “Government Risk” at an all-time high in the firm’s nearly seven-year time series. “Institutional Support Risk,” which GeoQuant said “measures the incumbent’s support from key political, legal and administrative institutions,” is also at a new peak.

That shows “Netanyahu’s failure to form a government in May, related opposition from rightist rival Avigdor Lieberman/Yisrael Beiteinu, and the persistent threat of a corruption indictment” have undermined his re-election,” they said. The firm’s “Mass Support Risk” is also running higher, but was below a 2017 high, “given Netanyahu’s strongman appeal.”

Earlier, Dow Jones said that Netanyahu is ‘‘locked in a close election contest with his main rival, former Gen. Benny Gantz, with final polls ahead of Tuesday’s vote suggesting that neither have a clear path to governing.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Felice Maranz in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at [email protected], Janet Freund

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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ASX set for subdued opening ahead of US Fed, jobs data

That prediction comes on the back of a mixed day on Wall Street on Friday. Most of the major US stock indexes ended lower, as losses for technology shares offset gains by big banks.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 37.07 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 27,219.52, but the S&P 500 index slipped 2.18 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 3007.39.

Investors across the world will be watching as the US Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with news of their latest decision on interest rates set to hit Australia on Thursday morning.

Economists are expecting the central bank to cut the rate by 0.25 per cent.

The US and China trade war remains a source of uncertainty, though there is fresh hope for a solution, with US President Donald Trump signalling he is potentially open to an interim trade deal.

China also revealed on Friday it would exempt some US pork and soybeans from extra tariffs on US goods.

“There’s a bit of optimism there,” Mr James said.

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes from its September board meeting on Tuesday.

The big event will likely be the Australian Bureau of Statistics releasing employment figures for August on Thursday.

Economists are expecting 15,000 jobs to have been created in the month, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 5.2 per cent for the fifth consecutive month. An extra 41,000 jobs in July had failed to budge the rate.

Last week, National Australia Bank’s economists changed their call on official interest rates predicting an additional cut in February to take the official cash rate to 0.5 per cent partly due to unemployment edging higher.

The Australian market closed slightly higher on Friday, rising for a third

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The Great Bull Market Run Of 2019 And 2020 May Only Be Starting

Stocks had a solid showing this week, with the finishing the week higher by roughly 1%. For September the index has risen by over 3%. However, the real star this past week was the , which is now up over 5.5% for the month.

Global Growth Trade

Global Growth Trade

The sector rotation that has been taking place tells a tale of improving global growth. The top 5 sectors are all part of a global growth trade, with the , , , and , 4 of the top 5. come in at 2 rising by nearly 6% so far this month. Partially that is because of the rising interest and widening spreads we have recently witnessed. But rising rates can also be interpreted as an expectation that the economy is stronger than previously perceived in August.

Commodity Strength

Copper

XCU/USD Daily Chart

When digging deeper, we can see critical commodities, such as , which has recently broken out of a multi-month down, a significant global growth metal. Should copper rise above $2.70 this week, it has the potential to move up to around $2.80.

Iron Ore

Iron Ore Daily Chart

prices have started to rise once again too, after collapsing in August.

Soybeans

Soybeans Daily Chart

prices have also been on the rise in recent days, an indication that perhaps China has started to come back into the US markets, as widely spoken about over the past week.

Markets

South Korea

KOSPI Daily Chart

Key export economies stock markets are on the rise. The Korea rose above a multi-month downtrend and has further to rise before reaching its next level of resistance.

Japan

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U.S. Indexes Continue To Rally Within A Defined Range

This week ended with the , and stalling near recent highs. From a technical perspective, both Thursday and Friday set up small range price bars (Doji candles or small Spinning Top type bars) after the upside price move on Wednesday. These are indicative of price consolidation and indecision.

The news events that initiated this rally, nearly a week ago, continue to drive sentiment in the markets. Yet the news from the ECB that new stimulus efforts would begin with $20 billion monthly invested in assets until they decide it is not required any longer suggests the EU is desperate to support extended growth and some renewed inflation. This move by the EU pushed banks and the finance sector higher while the U.S. stock market stalled near the end of the week.

At these lofty levels, almost all of our indicators and predictive modeling systems are suggesting the U.S. stock markets are well within overbought mode. Of course, the markets can continue in this mode for extended periods of time as central banks and external efforts to support the asset/stock market continues, at some point investors/traders will recognize the imbalance in price/demand/supply as a fear of a price contraction.

We are very cautious that the market is setting up a lofty peak at this time. It is important for traders and investors to understand the global situations that are setting up in the markets. With precious metals moving higher, it is important to understand that FEAR and GREED are very active in the markets right now. The continued capital shift that has been taking place where foreign investors are shifting assets into U.S. and more mature economies trying to avoid risks and currency risks is still very active. Yet the lofty prices in certain segments of the U.S. stock markets means

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