Paul Tudor Jones: Stocks Will 'Definitely Decline' If Democrat Wins in 2020

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones warns that the stock market will decline if any Democrat wins the 2020 presidential election.

He says investors will assume a Democrat will raise taxes.

“I think the stock market will definitely decline because that will assume that it’s going to be accompanied by a raise in taxes,” Jones told CNBC.

He explained that the severity of the market plunge if a Democrat wins will depend on the candidate. “Yes, it will decline somewhat,” he continued. “I don’t know necessarily if the economy’s going to contract. We’ll have to see what happens.”

However, Jones said an “explosive” combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus is driving the stock market higher.

“We’ve got a 5% deficit coupled with the lowest real rates that you can image with the economy at full employment,” he said. “That’s the most unorthodox, and potentially explosive, combination that you can imagine.”

Jones said last week that a poll at his investment firm showed employees believe the stock market would swoon 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren wins, Bloomberg reported.

Tudor Jones joins hedge fund managers Rob Citrone and Jeff Vinik in warning that the stock market would tank over the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency.

Jones, citing an internal poll at his macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., also said economic growth in the U.S. would fall to 1% from estimates of more than 2% this year.

Warren, who advocates for a 2% tax on America’s richest families, “Medicare for all” and new regulations on private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street as she’s gained momentum in a huge field of candidates for the Democratic nomination.

Macro hedge fund manager Citrone, who runs the $2.5 billion Discovery Capital Management, said last week that she could send the market down 10% and 20% if she’s leading

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Paul Tudor Jones: Stocks Will 'Definitely Decline' If Democrat Wins in 2020

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones warns that the stock market will decline if any Democrat wins the 2020 presidential election.

He says investors will assume a Democrat will raise taxes.

“I think the stock market will definitely decline because that will assume that it’s going to be accompanied by a raise in taxes,” Jones told CNBC.

He explained that the severity of the market plunge if a Democrat wins will depend on the candidate. “Yes, it will decline somewhat,” he continued. “I don’t know necessarily if the economy’s going to contract. We’ll have to see what happens.”

However, Jones said an “explosive” combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus is driving the stock market higher.

“We’ve got a 5% deficit coupled with the lowest real rates that you can image with the economy at full employment,” he said. “That’s the most unorthodox, and potentially explosive, combination that you can imagine.”

Jones said last week that a poll at his investment firm showed employees believe the stock market would swoon 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren wins, Bloomberg reported.

Tudor Jones joins hedge fund managers Rob Citrone and Jeff Vinik in warning that the stock market would tank over the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency.

Jones, citing an internal poll at his macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., also said economic growth in the U.S. would fall to 1% from estimates of more than 2% this year.

Warren, who advocates for a 2% tax on America’s richest families, “Medicare for all” and new regulations on private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street as she’s gained momentum in a huge field of candidates for the Democratic nomination.

Macro hedge fund manager Citrone, who runs the $2.5 billion Discovery Capital Management, said last week that she could send the market down 10% and 20% if she’s leading

Read More Here...

Paul Tudor Jones: Stocks Will 'Definitely Decline' If Democrat Wins in 2020

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones warns that the stock market will decline if any Democrat wins the 2020 presidential election.

He says investors will assume a Democrat will raise taxes.

“I think the stock market will definitely decline because that will assume that it’s going to be accompanied by a raise in taxes,” Jones told CNBC.

He explained that the severity of the market plunge if a Democrat wins will depend on the candidate. “Yes, it will decline somewhat,” he continued. “I don’t know necessarily if the economy’s going to contract. We’ll have to see what happens.”

However, Jones said an “explosive” combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus is driving the stock market higher.

“We’ve got a 5% deficit coupled with the lowest real rates that you can image with the economy at full employment,” he said. “That’s the most unorthodox, and potentially explosive, combination that you can imagine.”

Jones said last week that a poll at his investment firm showed employees believe the stock market would swoon 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren wins, Bloomberg reported.

Tudor Jones joins hedge fund managers Rob Citrone and Jeff Vinik in warning that the stock market would tank over the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency.

Jones, citing an internal poll at his macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., also said economic growth in the U.S. would fall to 1% from estimates of more than 2% this year.

Warren, who advocates for a 2% tax on America’s richest families, “Medicare for all” and new regulations on private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street as she’s gained momentum in a huge field of candidates for the Democratic nomination.

Macro hedge fund manager Citrone, who runs the $2.5 billion Discovery Capital Management, said last week that she could send the market down 10% and 20% if she’s leading

Read More Here...

Paul Tudor Jones: Stocks Will 'Definitely Decline' If Democrat Wins in 2020

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones warns that the stock market will decline if any Democrat wins the 2020 presidential election.

He says investors will assume a Democrat will raise taxes.

“I think the stock market will definitely decline because that will assume that it’s going to be accompanied by a raise in taxes,” Jones told CNBC.

He explained that the severity of the market plunge if a Democrat wins will depend on the candidate. “Yes, it will decline somewhat,” he continued. “I don’t know necessarily if the economy’s going to contract. We’ll have to see what happens.”

However, Jones said an “explosive” combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus is driving the stock market higher.

“We’ve got a 5% deficit coupled with the lowest real rates that you can image with the economy at full employment,” he said. “That’s the most unorthodox, and potentially explosive, combination that you can imagine.”

Jones said last week that a poll at his investment firm showed employees believe the stock market would swoon 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren wins, Bloomberg reported.

Tudor Jones joins hedge fund managers Rob Citrone and Jeff Vinik in warning that the stock market would tank over the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency.

Jones, citing an internal poll at his macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., also said economic growth in the U.S. would fall to 1% from estimates of more than 2% this year.

Warren, who advocates for a 2% tax on America’s richest families, “Medicare for all” and new regulations on private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street as she’s gained momentum in a huge field of candidates for the Democratic nomination.

Macro hedge fund manager Citrone, who runs the $2.5 billion Discovery Capital Management, said last week that she could send the market down 10% and 20% if she’s leading the way into the February primaries.

Vinik, who rose to fame as the manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund, told Bloomberg that if Warren’s candidacy keeps gaining momentum, “the market is going to have a lot of agita” — which could be a buying opportunity.

Her self-described “democratic socialist” opponent, Bernie Sanders, would cause the markets to tumble about 20%, Jones said. Warren’s more centrist opponents for the nomination Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar would drag down the market by around 10%, he told the audience.

Meanwhile, Jones said, the re-election of President Donald Trump would boost the S&P to 3,600 — representing an 18% jump from the index’s record high of 3,039 as of the end of trading Monday.

The veteran hedge fund manager, who added that he has no idea who will win the election and has no strong feeling on the market, is continuing to bet on gold, he told the audience.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump delivered a stump speech aimed at Wall Street, touting his economic record to an audience of executives and economists while warning that a Democratic victory in 2020 would endanger stock market gains.

Trump’s speech before the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday was a collection of the president’s well-worn lines on the economy that he’s delivered in tweets, to reporters at the White House and at campaign events around the country.

Trump reiterated complaints about the Federal Reserve — saying higher interest rates put the U.S. at a “competitive disadvantage” while offering little new clarity about trade negotiations with China, warning that the country faces massive new tariffs if a deal isn’t finalized soon.

Instead, the president said that the lower taxes, higher employment rates and market gains under his administration would disappear if he’s defeated.

“I am proud to stand before you as president of the United States to report that we have delivered on our promises and exceeded our expectations by a very wide margin,” he said. “We have ended the war on American workers, we have stopped the assault on American industry, and we have launched an economic boom the likes of which we have never seen before.”

Trump’s protectionist approach to trade and penchant for controversy have long made him anathema to many on Wall Street. But he sought to depict his candidacy as the natural choice for investors who wanted to protect the gains they’ve realized since he took office — the S&P 500 is up about 36% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained about 40%.

The president drew explicit contrast to his potential political opponents, characterizing them as radicals. He spoke as Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden struggles to fend off challenges from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders – who have proposed massive government intervention in parts of the U.S. economy – as well as Pete Buttigieg, the relatively unknown mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Biden holds a lead in national polls but lags in states with early primaries and caucuses.

“Look at what I’m competing with on the other side,” Trump said of Democratic policy proposals, quipping the candidates “have gone loco.”

The economy could propel Trump, despite an electorate that largely disapproves of his presidency, according to polls.

A majority of Americans — 52% — approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while just 43% said they disapproved, according to a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released late last month. That represents a six-point net improvement from the same survey in August, and far outpaces the president’s overall approval rating of 45%.

The president and his top campaign officials have pointed to economic models that show he should have an easier path to re-election than many analysts say. Forecasts from Yale University professor Ray Fair, Oxford Economics Ltd. and Moody’s Analytics Inc. see Trump buoyed by steady economic growth and a tight labor market.

Trump said Tuesday that U.S. economic success had enabled him to address “some of the horrible, incompetent, just terrible trade deals that have been made over the years and make them great” — prompting applause from the audience.

This report uses material from the AP, Bloomberg and Reuters.
 

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Paul Tudor Jones: Stocks Will 'Definitely Decline' If Democrat Wins in 2020

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones warns that the stock market will decline if any Democrat wins the 2020 presidential election.

He says investors will assume a Democrat will raise taxes.

“I think the stock market will definitely decline because that will assume that it’s going to be accompanied by a raise in taxes,” Jones told CNBC.

He explained that the severity of the market plunge if a Democrat wins will depend on the candidate. “Yes, it will decline somewhat,” he continued. “I don’t know necessarily if the economy’s going to contract. We’ll have to see what happens.”

However, Jones said an “explosive” combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus is driving the stock market higher.

“We’ve got a 5% deficit coupled with the lowest real rates that you can image with the economy at full employment,” he said. “That’s the most unorthodox, and potentially explosive, combination that you can imagine.”

Jones said last week that a poll at his investment firm showed employees believe the stock market would swoon 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren wins, Bloomberg reported.

Tudor Jones joins hedge fund managers Rob Citrone and Jeff Vinik in warning that the stock market would tank over the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency.

Jones, citing an internal poll at his macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., also said economic growth in the U.S. would fall to 1% from estimates of more than 2% this year.

Warren, who advocates for a 2% tax on America’s richest families, “Medicare for all” and new regulations on private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street as she’s gained momentum in a huge field of candidates for the Democratic nomination.

Macro hedge fund manager Citrone, who runs the $2.5 billion Discovery Capital Management, said last week that she could send the market down 10% and 20% if she’s leading

Read More Here...

After nailing a call for a pullback in June, Canaccord’s Dwyer predicts another S&P 500 slide

Canaccord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer has been bullish on the U.S. stocks in recent years, predicting after rising more than 23% in 2019, the S&P 500 will reach 3,350 by the end of 2020, a more than 8.3% increase from Tuesday’s close.

But Dwyer has also made intermittent calls for pullbacks, including an accurate call on April 30 for a minor retrenchment in the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.08%  to precede a resumption of its upward trajectory. Indeed, from the close of trade on April 30, through June 30 the S&P 500 declined 6.9%, before rising to record highs in late July and again in recent weeks.

He is once again predicting an S&P 500 retracement. “Our core thesis remains positive, with low inflation, an easy Fed, a re-steepening of the yield curve, slowing but positive growth, better-than-expected [earnings per share] and valuation expansion, although the tactical backdrop suggests a minor correction over the near term,” Dwyer wrote in a Tuesday note to clients, referring to a widening gap between interest rates of varying maturities that had flattened in recent months, often viewed as an accurate predictor of coming economic weakness.

The yield of the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.90% yield for example has risen to 1.874%, from 1.691%, withe differential between the benchmark debt and the 2-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD02Y, -1.46%  at 1.626% widened to about 24 basis points from 17 basis points at the end of October, FactSet data show. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.05% have established fresh records since stumbling during the summer.

“The recent string of new all-time highs in the major equity indices have pushed our indicators further into the extreme overbought territory that led to the [pullback in June],” he added.

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US Stocks Up on Stable Interest Rates Wednesday

U.S. stocks were in the green on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that interest rates would remain stable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.25% to 27,758, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.14% to 3,096 and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.10% to 8,494.

Non-index stocks have also posted gains and losses recently. Shares of Luckin Coffee Inc. (NASDAQ:LK) gained more than 13% on Wednesday after the company announced third-quarter results. The company posted a loss of 32 cents per share, beating estimates by 6 cents. Revenue of $208.9 million was in line with expectations.

“We are very pleased with our results in the third quarter,” CEO Jenny Zhiya Qian said. “We exceeded the high-end of our guidance range, achieved a store level profit margin of 12.5% and experienced continuous growth across all key operating metrics. These achievements follow a clear trend: an increase in volumes, efficiency and, as a result, profitability. During the quarter, product revenue grew at 557.6%, which was 1.2x, 1.4x and 2.7x the growth rate of average monthly items sold, average monthly transacting customers, and number of stores, respectively.” 

The operating loss for the quarter was 590.9 million yuan ($82.7 million) compared to 485.6 million yuan in the prior-year quarter. Further, the non-GAAP operating loss was 550.1 million yuan, representing 35.7% of total net revenues, versus 485.6 million yuan, or 201.7% of total net revenues a year ago.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the company expects net revenues from products to be between 2.1 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan.

During the quarter ended June 30, several hedge fund managers opened new positions in the stock: Philippe Laffont with 514,823 shares, Louis Moore Bacon (Trades, Portfolio) with 400,000 shares, Chase Coleman (Trades, Portfolio) with 300,000 shares and Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio) with

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3

It’s been three years since Donald Trump was elected U.S. President. Since his election, the S&P 500 is up more than 45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 50% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 60%.

Such monumental gains have come despite occasional market crashes due to U.S.-China trade tensions. Trump’s promises of tax cuts, deregulations in the financial sector and bringing back foreign jobs to America boosted the markets.

Trump’s Agenda & How It Impacted the Broader Market

Donald Trump is in favor of beefing up public spending by hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure. In fact, he had proposed $1 trillion infrastructure spending financed by new tax credits to goad private equity investors. Increased outlays were aimed at improving roads, bridges and telecommunications.

President Trump’s administration passed a tax plan in December 2017 that was enacted in January 2018, and revolved mainly around corporate tax cuts and personal tax rate adjustment. The plan cuts the corporate rate from 35% to 21% (read: Tax Bill: What ETF Investors Need to Know).

The Trump administration also proposed a move from the worldwide tax system to a territorial system, allowing companies to send their offshore profits back to the United States without extra taxes. Investors should note that tech behemoths hoard huge cash overseas and benefited the most from Trump’s repatriation tax policy.

Defense stocks have been another beneficiary. Trump is a proponent of boosting defense budget and also mentioned this year that the United States has secured a $100 billion increase in spending from NATO allies (read: Why Aerospace & Defense ETFs are Soaring in 2019).

Trade war with many countries, mainly China, deserves special mention. This was part of his protectionist agenda and the “Buy American and Hire American” policy. However, the trade war caused recurrent

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Tuesday's Stock Market Close- Dow Flat On Lack Of China Trade Deal News

President Trump didn’t give investors much to work with Tuesday in his speech before the Economic Club of New York. The result was little movement on the major indexes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged at the closing bell at 27,691. The Nasdaq Composite rose 21 points to 8,486 and the S&P 500 gained 4 points to 3,091.

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange totaled 2.9 billion shares with 1,480 advancing, 119 setting new highs, and 1,540 declining, 71 setting new lows.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amarin Corp. (AMRN) and General Electric (GE) led the most actives.

In his speech, Trump said only that China is anxious to reach a trade agreement and phase 1 of the pact “could happen soon.” He said he would accept a deal “only if it’s good for the U.S., our workers and our companies.”

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments over the administration’s effort to end Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which protects young people who were brought to the U.S. without documentation as children. The court will first decide whether is has the power to weigh in on the case since the program was created by executive order, and if it does, whether the administration’s move is legal.

Disney’s (DIS) much-anticipated streaming service Disney+ got off to a rocky start with technical glitches that crashed some users’ systems. Disney is hoping that at $7 a month, it will attract 90 million subscribers globally within five years. The service is not expected to turn a profit during that period. Disney opened 0.6% higher.

Former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick sold 20% of his stake in the ride-sharing service when the lockup period ended last week for $547 million. Uber (UBER) has underwhelmed investors since its initial public offering six months ago, with

Read More Here...

Tuesday's Stock Market Close- Dow Flat On Lack Of China Trade Deal News

President Trump didn’t give investors much to work with Tuesday in his speech before the Economic Club of New York. The result was little movement on the major indexes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged at the closing bell at 27,691. The Nasdaq Composite rose 21 points to 8,486 and the S&P 500 gained 4 points to 3,091.

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange totaled 2.9 billion shares with 1,480 advancing, 119 setting new highs, and 1,540 declining, 71 setting new lows.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amarin Corp. (AMRN) and General Electric (GE) led the most actives.

In his speech, Trump said only that China is anxious to reach a trade agreement and phase 1 of the pact “could happen soon.” He said he would accept a deal “only if it’s good for the U.S., our workers and our companies.”

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments over the administration’s effort to end Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which protects young people who were brought to the U.S. without documentation as children. The court will first decide whether is has the power to weigh in on the case since the program was created by executive order, and if it does, whether the administration’s move is legal.

Disney’s (DIS) much-anticipated streaming service Disney+ got off to a rocky start with technical glitches that crashed some users’ systems. Disney is hoping that at $7 a month, it will attract 90 million subscribers globally within five years. The service is not expected to turn a profit during that period. Disney opened 0.6% higher.

Former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick sold 20% of his stake in the ride-sharing service when the lockup period ended last week for $547 million. Uber (UBER) has underwhelmed investors since its initial public offering six months ago, with

Read More Here...