Big Up Week For The Markets

Stock Market News – 2-16-19

Stock Alert

Markets

It was a big up week for the market, with the rising over 3%, and the up 2.5%, the up 2.4%, and the up a whopping 4.25%. Rising , and some positive news on trade talks helped to lift the market.

Progress in the U.S.-China trade talks helped send world stock markets broadly higher on Friday and pulled investors out of the safety of government bonds. China and the United States reached a consensus in principle on some key issues during the talks, China’s state news agency Xinhua said on Friday. Negotiations will continue next week in Washington as investors hope for an end to the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Index Current Price

High Dividend Stocks

These high yield stocks go ex-dividend next week – NYSE:, NYSE:, NYSE:.

Volatility

The fell -7.6% this week, ending at $14.91.

Forex

It was a split week for the greenback – the rose versus the , the , , and the , but fell versus the , and the and .

1 Week Relative Performance USD

Market Breadth

29 DOW 30 stocks fell this week, vs. 21 rising last week. 87% of the rose this week, versus 56% rising last week.

Economic News

“U.S. manufacturing output fell steeply in January as motor vehicle production posted its biggest fall since 2009, with declines in a broad range of goods likely to fuel fears of a sharp slowdown in factory activity. The Federal Reserve said on Friday manufacturing production slumped 0.9% last month, the deepest drop in eight months. Data for December was revised to show a smaller increase in output that month than initially reported.

Production of motor vehicles and parts

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Week Ahead: Stocks, USD Gain, But Yields Signal Risk-Off Headwinds Upcoming

Stocks climb to multi-month highs on consumer sentiment, trade Investors appear to disregard border wall politics amid impeachment calls and declining retail sales Oil reaches highest point in three months, on OPEC, Russia cuts

U.S. stocks finished higher for yet another week, on improved sentiment, pushing aside prior concerns about a global economic slowdown. However, we think investors should be cautious about buying into media reports extolling the consumer sentiment beat and what it may mean for markets.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 95.5 this month from 91.2 in January, beating expectations. The positive surprise highlights two things:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was correct about the longest government shutdown on record—which lasted for 35 days, beginning on Dec. 22 and ending on Jan. 25—not having any real impact on the economy, while warning that a second such event would hurt confidence, the very thing this index measures, and The market apparently didn’t trust Powell’s assessment, or estimates wouldn’t have been so solidly beaten

We wonder what else Powell has been saying that markets aren’t taking seriously. Perhaps that the Fed is willing to be ” about interest rate hikes and ‘flexible’ about balance sheet reduction within the context of insufficient data due to the government shutdown, not necessarily as a policy shift?

For that matter, can we also rely on this consumer sentiment beat, or is it simply a positive surprise to something for which there were low expectations to begin with?

Consumer Sentiment Index 2018-Present

Based on the chart, sentiment has been steadily slipping since March 2018. Incidentally, that’s also when President Donald Trump started hitting China with tariff threats.

As well, stocks reached heights not seen in many weeks on reports that the world’s two largest economies have made substantial progress

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Pin-Striped Pork Bellies

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on [email protected]

In the month of December of last year, Dow futures fell approximately 4,300 points, bottomed the day after Christmas and promptly rallied 4,100 points thru and including this past Friday. Thus, in 21/2 months, Dow futures have moved nothing less than 8,400 points. The Nasdaq has actually done even better. And stocks per se are off to their best start to a new year in 32 years.

However, the average bear rally based on history is approximately 11% and now, we are about 11.5% off the low for the Nasdaq. The Dow is doing nearly the same. The rally with stocks is impressive but based on history, the bounce is not without precedent.

Still by any measure, stocks are wild and crazy and acting as if they were a commodity. Yes, a commodity. But that is not a new observation on my part. Below is a chapter from Back To The Futures entitled, Darth Vader Zaps Pin-Striped Pork Bellies. Yes, in the 80s stocks futures were called pin-striped pork bellies because they were so volatile.

Here are a few paragraphs from chapter above. And please look at the level where the Dow futures were back then when it was wild and crazy and moving around as if it were a pork belly. Anyway, from Back To The Futures regarding pin striped pork bellies

—————————————————————————–

The world is learning first hand why stock index futures contracts are known as pin-striped pork bellies. The S&P 500 futures index, for example, fell $26,000 per contract from October 5 through October 17. In nine trading days, stock futures went from a five-week high to a one-year low.


The selling was so intense on October 17 that

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Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump's pick for US Ambassador to UN

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump’s pick for US Ambassador to UN

Feb 17, 2019 (Agencia EFE via COMTEX) —

Washington, Feb 17 (efe-epa).- Heather Nauert, who was United States President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report made available to EFE on Sunday.

Trump had chosen Nauert, who served as the State Department’s spokeswoman, in December to succeed Nikki Haley as the US envoy to the UN.

The State Department announced late Saturday that she had withdrawn for family reasons and that Trump will select another nominee soon.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Nauert’s withdrawal was a personal decision.

“I wish Heather nothing but the best in all of her future endeavors,” Pompeo wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nauert, a former “Fox & Friends” anchor, had little foreign policy experience before joining the State Department.

Nauert had served as spokeswoman for Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson.

She remained in the role when Pompeo, previously director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was appointed to head the State Department and had gained his confidence and support to take on the job at the UN.

Nonetheless, Nauert likely would have faced intense scrutiny from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Haley also was a foreign-policy novice when she was nominated as ambassador to the UN, but she had twice been elected governor of South Carolina.

Trump also had considered replacing Haley with Dina Powell, who had been a deputy national security adviser and had served in the George W. Bush White House.

Others who had been under consideration included Kay Bailey Hutchison, the former senator from Texas, and

Read More Here...

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump's pick for US Ambassador to UN

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump’s pick for US Ambassador to UN

Feb 17, 2019 (Agencia EFE via COMTEX) —

Washington, Feb 17 (efe-epa).- Heather Nauert, who was United States President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report made available to EFE on Sunday.

Trump had chosen Nauert, who served as the State Department’s spokeswoman, in December to succeed Nikki Haley as the US envoy to the UN.

The State Department announced late Saturday that she had withdrawn for family reasons and that Trump will select another nominee soon.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Nauert’s withdrawal was a personal decision.

“I wish Heather nothing but the best in all of her future endeavors,” Pompeo wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nauert, a former “Fox & Friends” anchor, had little foreign policy experience before joining the State Department.

Nauert had served as spokeswoman for Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson.

She remained in the role when Pompeo, previously director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was appointed to head the State Department and had gained his confidence and support to take on the job at the UN.

Nonetheless, Nauert likely would have faced intense scrutiny from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Haley also was a foreign-policy novice when she was nominated as ambassador to the UN, but she had twice been elected governor of South Carolina.

Trump also had considered replacing Haley with Dina Powell, who had been a deputy national security adviser and had served in the George W. Bush White House.

Others who had been under consideration included Kay Bailey Hutchison, the former senator from Texas, and

Read More Here...

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump's pick for US Ambassador to UN

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump’s pick for US Ambassador to UN

Feb 17, 2019 (Agencia EFE via COMTEX) —

Washington, Feb 17 (efe-epa).- Heather Nauert, who was United States President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report made available to EFE on Sunday.

Trump had chosen Nauert, who served as the State Department’s spokeswoman, in December to succeed Nikki Haley as the US envoy to the UN.

The State Department announced late Saturday that she had withdrawn for family reasons and that Trump will select another nominee soon.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Nauert’s withdrawal was a personal decision.

“I wish Heather nothing but the best in all of her future endeavors,” Pompeo wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nauert, a former “Fox & Friends” anchor, had little foreign policy experience before joining the State Department.

Nauert had served as spokeswoman for Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson.

She remained in the role when Pompeo, previously director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was appointed to head the State Department and had gained his confidence and support to take on the job at the UN.

Nonetheless, Nauert likely would have faced intense scrutiny from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Haley also was a foreign-policy novice when she was nominated as ambassador to the UN, but she had twice been elected governor of South Carolina.

Trump also had considered replacing Haley with Dina Powell, who had been a deputy national security adviser and had served in the George W. Bush White House.

Others who had been under consideration included Kay Bailey Hutchison, the former senator from Texas, and

Read More Here...

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump's pick for US Ambassador to UN

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump’s pick for US Ambassador to UN

Feb 17, 2019 (Agencia EFE via COMTEX) —

Washington, Feb 17 (efe-epa).- Heather Nauert, who was United States President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report made available to EFE on Sunday.

Trump had chosen Nauert, who served as the State Department’s spokeswoman, in December to succeed Nikki Haley as the US envoy to the UN.

The State Department announced late Saturday that she had withdrawn for family reasons and that Trump will select another nominee soon.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Nauert’s withdrawal was a personal decision.

“I wish Heather nothing but the best in all of her future endeavors,” Pompeo wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nauert, a former “Fox & Friends” anchor, had little foreign policy experience before joining the State Department.

Nauert had served as spokeswoman for Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson.

She remained in the role when Pompeo, previously director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was appointed to head the State Department and had gained his confidence and support to take on the job at the UN.

Nonetheless, Nauert likely would have faced intense scrutiny from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Haley also was a foreign-policy novice when she was nominated as ambassador to the UN, but she had twice been elected governor of South Carolina.

Trump also had considered replacing Haley with Dina Powell, who had been a deputy national security adviser and had served in the George W. Bush White House.

Others who had been under consideration included Kay Bailey Hutchison, the former senator from Texas, and

Read More Here...

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump's pick for US Ambassador to UN

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump’s pick for US Ambassador to UN

Feb 17, 2019 (Agencia EFE via COMTEX) —

Washington, Feb 17 (efe-epa).- Heather Nauert, who was United States President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report made available to EFE on Sunday.

Trump had chosen Nauert, who served as the State Department’s spokeswoman, in December to succeed Nikki Haley as the US envoy to the UN.

The State Department announced late Saturday that she had withdrawn for family reasons and that Trump will select another nominee soon.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Nauert’s withdrawal was a personal decision.

“I wish Heather nothing but the best in all of her future endeavors,” Pompeo wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nauert, a former “Fox & Friends” anchor, had little foreign policy experience before joining the State Department.

Nauert had served as spokeswoman for Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson.

She remained in the role when Pompeo, previously director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was appointed to head the State Department and had gained his confidence and support to take on the job at the UN.

Nonetheless, Nauert likely would have faced intense scrutiny from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Haley also was a foreign-policy novice when she was nominated as ambassador to the UN, but she had twice been elected governor of South Carolina.

Trump also had considered replacing Haley with Dina Powell, who had been a deputy national security adviser and had served in the George W. Bush White House.

Others who had been under consideration included Kay Bailey Hutchison, the former senator from Texas, and

Read More Here...

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump's pick for US Ambassador to UN

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump’s pick for US Ambassador to UN

Feb 17, 2019 (Agencia EFE via COMTEX) —

Washington, Feb 17 (efe-epa).- Heather Nauert, who was United States President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report made available to EFE on Sunday.

Trump had chosen Nauert, who served as the State Department’s spokeswoman, in December to succeed Nikki Haley as the US envoy to the UN.

The State Department announced late Saturday that she had withdrawn for family reasons and that Trump will select another nominee soon.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Nauert’s withdrawal was a personal decision.

“I wish Heather nothing but the best in all of her future endeavors,” Pompeo wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nauert, a former “Fox & Friends” anchor, had little foreign policy experience before joining the State Department.

Nauert had served as spokeswoman for Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson.

She remained in the role when Pompeo, previously director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was appointed to head the State Department and had gained his confidence and support to take on the job at the UN.

Nonetheless, Nauert likely would have faced intense scrutiny from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Haley also was a foreign-policy novice when she was nominated as ambassador to the UN, but she had twice been elected governor of South Carolina.

Trump also had considered replacing Haley with Dina Powell, who had been a deputy national security adviser and had served in the George W. Bush White House.

Others who had been under consideration included Kay Bailey Hutchison, the former senator from Texas, and

Read More Here...

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump's pick for US Ambassador to UN

Heather Nauert withdraws as Donald Trump’s pick for US Ambassador to UN

Feb 17, 2019 (Agencia EFE via COMTEX) —

Washington, Feb 17 (efe-epa).- Heather Nauert, who was United States President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report made available to EFE on Sunday.

Trump had chosen Nauert, who served as the State Department’s spokeswoman, in December to succeed Nikki Haley as the US envoy to the UN.

The State Department announced late Saturday that she had withdrawn for family reasons and that Trump will select another nominee soon.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Nauert’s withdrawal was a personal decision.

“I wish Heather nothing but the best in all of her future endeavors,” Pompeo wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nauert, a former “Fox & Friends” anchor, had little foreign policy experience before joining the State Department.

Nauert had served as spokeswoman for Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson.

She remained in the role when Pompeo, previously director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was appointed to head the State Department and had gained his confidence and support to take on the job at the UN.

Nonetheless, Nauert likely would have faced intense scrutiny from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Haley also was a foreign-policy novice when she was nominated as ambassador to the UN, but she had twice been elected governor of South Carolina.

Trump also had considered replacing Haley with Dina Powell, who had been a deputy national security adviser and had served in the George W. Bush White House.

Others who had been under consideration included Kay Bailey Hutchison, the former senator from Texas, and

Read More Here...