A Trump win over Biden would be the ‘biggest error’ in ‘modern era of mass polling’

Former Vice President Joe Biden currently leads Republican incumbent President Donald Trump by a handsome margin with less than a month remaining before the Nov. 3 election.

However, the memory of 2016’s stunning win by Trump, over Democrat Hillary Clinton despite her lead in the polls have investors, poll watchers and regular Americans hesitant to call this race a done deal for Biden.

To be sure, Clinton did win the popular vote by over 2%, but ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral college votes and Clinton 227, after two electors defected from Trump and five defected from Clinton.

One analyst notes though that a win by Trump, despite Biden’s large lead in current polling, would represent one of the biggest errors in polling history in the modern era .

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a Wednesday note writes that the largest polling error thus far in modern history was Democrat President Harry S. Truman’s apparent upset victory over then New York Gov. Thomas E. Dewey, a Republican, in the 1948 race that often recalls the erroneous headline in the Chicago Daily Tribune the following day that read “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

Truman won that race by 5 percentage points despite lagging behind in final polls leading up to Election Day by 4.4 percentage points, Reid writes (see included chart).

A Trump victory, however, would be a decidedly greater error in polls.

“A Truman style error in the polls may give Mr Trump a chance given the electoral college system, but the reality is that – unless the polls narrow into election day – a Trump victory would be the biggest error in our modern era of mass polling,” the Deutsch Bank analyst writes.

An average of national polls from RealClearPolitics polling currently shows Biden with a 9.2 percentage point lead over Trumpputs

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