A Tip Of My Hat To Mr.Obama

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

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Below is my weekly newspaper column from November 22 entitled, A Tip Of My Hat To Mr. Obama. I hope you find something of interest in my ramblings.


A Tip Of My Hat To Mr. Obama

This week, for the first time in history the Dow Jones closed over the 28,000 level and remains firmly in a bull trend. It is now the best and most bullish equity market in history. According to CNBC news, The current market boom, which started March 9, 2009, has enjoyed a whopping 468% gain for the S&P 500 through the first day of November, according to The Leuthold Group. And, this record-long bull run also marks the best-performing one since World War II, the firm says.

When it comes to a market, any kind including equities, two of the most difficult forecasts to predict is when will a long term bottom be seen. Or, a long term high. Once a low is in place and values head north, being long can be quite rewarding. Once a high is in place and values head south, short positions can be quite rewarding. Or, exiting existing long positions can save an investor (or agriculture producers!) a great deal of money.

Forecasting is more complicated by the fact that markets tend to bottom when things appear the bleakest. Markets also tend to top out when things appears the most bullish. For the Dow Jones and other equity markets, things appear quite bullish today. For commodities per se, the very opposite is being seen.

In my view, the best forecast I can recall regarding the stock market was by President Obama. Keep in mind that according to many, the bull market

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